This research project will make Bayesian statistical computation much faster. Bayesian methods have not gained much traction in the social sciences, in part because the approach is so computationally intensive. Many researchers who could usefully apply these techniques choose not to do so because the analysis is too costly. This project will improve the computational efficiency of Bayesian methods by harnessing a critical theorem that has long been overlooked by statisticians but proven by one of the twentieth century's greatest mathematicians.
The idea that law struggles to keep pace with technological change has in recent years become a trope. New technologies convey social benefits but also unexpected potential harm. This is particularly troubling in the context of international law, where military technological breakthroughs can disrupt multilateral consensus about who owes whom what. Puzzlingly, old laws are often robust to disruptive technological change, even when there are strong incentives for powerful parties to push for overhaul.
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